Özet:

The international economy focuses primarily on the liberalization of foreign trade, and on the effects of this liberalization on a country’s non-clean domestic income (GDP). In particular, Turkey, like many developing countries in the world economy, has since January 24, 1980 begun to follow the neoliberal foreign trade policies as a result of the instability in its economy. Therefore, analyzing the impact of neo-liberal trade policies on exports to Turkey has gained much more importance. In particular, in Turkey 1994, 2001, 2018 currency crises, 1997 Asian crisis, 2007-2009 global financial crisis with 2020-2022 Covid 19 global stagnation periods, this importance increases further. This study assumes that the changes in the GDP of the OECD countries, which have the largest export market, have an impact on Turkey’s foreign trade. This study claims that changes in OECD countries’ GDP, foreign trade limits (TOT) and exchange rate (currency) are significant variables that make up Turkey’s export demand function. The impact of these variables on the Turkish export model is analyzed by the Otoregressive Distributed Delay (ARDL) method. The study is based on the statistics of the period between 1982C1-2021C1. The results show that Turkey’s exports have a statistically meaningful correlation with the OECD’s GDP and Turkish Lira-US dollar currency exchange, but are not related to trade limits. However, when delayed variables are assessed by the ADRL method, five-period delayed exports of Turkey have a statistically meaningful relationship with two-period delayed OECD GDP, one-period delayed exchange rate changes and one-period delayed trade limits. This also ensures that OECD countries in the export market show that changes in GDP directly affect Turkey’s exports, in cases that cause economic stagnation such as the COVID-19 epidemic, this country is predicting how much changes in the economies will impact Turkey’s exports.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Özet:

International economics is a field that primarily examines the liberalization of trade and its impact on a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The trade policies in the World economy, specifically Türkiye as a developing economy, have experienced different cycles since the 1980s, and Türkiye has been following liberal trade policies in an attempt to overcome instabilities in its economy since 24 January 1980. In particular, the long-term, including, the 1994, 2001, 2018 currency crises in Türkiye, the 1997 Asia, the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, and the 2020-2022 Covid 19 global recession, further increases significance of the analysis. This article specifically explores the effects of neo-liberal trade policies on Türkiye and its primary export market, the OECD countries. In particular, the impact of changes in the OECD Countries’ GDP on Turkish exports is analyzed in relation to the Terms of Trade (TOT) and foreign exchange (FX) volatility of the Turkish Lira through Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results reveal that Türkiye’s exports follow a statistically significant correlation with OECD’s GDP and FX volatility but not with the TOT for the period between 1982Q1 to 2021Q1. However, the lagged variables evaluated by the ADRL method indicate that five periods of lagging Turkish exports have a statistically significant relationship with two periods of lagging GDP of OECD, and one period of lagging FX, as well as with one period of lagging TOT. This article also offers valuable insights into the impact of exceptional events like COVID-19 pandemic on national economies, thus findings presented in this paper can help governments and policy makers predict potential implications of other extraordinary circumstances or global disasters and make informed decisions to mitigate their impact on the national economy. This is a long term analysis of neoliberal FX policies applied in Türkiye.