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Bu çalışmada; Türkiye’nin turizm gelirlerinin cari işlemler dengesi üzerindeki etkileri, 2003:M01-2018:M09 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, ekonometrik analizler yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada serilerin durağanlık dereceleri Ng-Perron (2001) birim kök testiyle incelenmiş ve turizm gelirleri serisinin birinci farkı alındığında, diğer serilerin düzey değerlerinde durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Pesaran vd. (2001) Sınır Testi yöntemiyle incelenmiş ve serilerin eşbütünleşme ilişkisine sahip oldukları bulunmuştur. Seriler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri ARDL yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Uzun dönem analizinde; turizm gelirlerindeki 1 Milyar Dolarlık artışın cari işlemler açığını 2.26 Milyar Dolar azalttığı belirlenmiştir. Benzer şekilde döviz kurundaki 1 TL’lik artışın Türkiye’nin cari işlemler açığını ortalama 2.50 Milyar Dolar azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Son olarak 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi de Türkiye’nin cari işlemler açığını azaltmıştır. Kısa dönem analizinde; cari işlemler dengesinin, kendi gecikmeli değerlerinden önemli ölçüde etkilendiği görülmüş olup, bu durum Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının yapısal bir sorun haline geldiğine işaret etmektedir. Turizm gelirlerinin kısa dönemde cari işlemler açığını artırdığı görülmüştür. Döviz kurundaki artışların, çok kısa dönemde de cari işlemler açığını azaltmaya başladığı belirlenmiştir.
In this study, the impacts of tourism revenue on current account balance in Turkey are investigated with the help of econometric analysis using 2003: M01-2018: M09 period data. In the study, the stationarity degrees of the series are examined by Ng-Perron (2001) unit root test and it is determined that the tourism income series becomes stationary when it's first difference is taken while the other series are stationary at level values. The existence of a cointegration relationship between the series is examined by Pesaran et al. (2001) Bounds Testing method and it is found that the series has a cointegration relationship. The long and short-term relationships between the series are analyzed by ARDL method. In long-term analysis; it is determined that $1 billion increase in tourism revenues decreased the current account deficit by $2.26 billion. Similarly, 1 unit increase in exchange rates decreases Turkey's current account deficit by 2.50 Billion Dollars. Finally, the 2008 global economic crisis also reduces the current account deficit in Turkey. In the short-term analysis; the current account balance is found to be significantly affected from its own lagged values which indicates that the current account deficit in Turkey becomes a structural problem. It is observed that tourism revenues increase the current account deficit in the short term. It is determined that the increases in the exchange rate start to decrease the current account deficit in the very short term.
In this study, the impacts of tourism revenue on current account balance in Turkey are investigated with the help of econometric analysis using 2003: M01-2018: M09 period data. In the study, the stationarity degrees of the series are examined by Ng-Perron (2001) unit root test and it is determined that the tourism income series become stationary when it’s first difference is taken while the other series are stationary at level values. The existence of a cointegration relationship between the series is examined by Pesaran et al. (2001) Bounds Testing method and it is found that the series have a cointegration relationship. The long and short term relationships between the series are analyzed by ARDL method. In long-term analysis; it is determined that 1 Billion Dollar increase in tourism revenues decreased the current account deficit by 2.26 Billion Dollars. Similarly, 1 unit increase in exchange rates decreases Turkey's current account deficit by 2.50 Billion Dollars. Finally, the 2008 global economic crisis also reduces the current account deficit in Turkey. In the short term analysis; the current account balance is found to be significantly affected from its own lagged values which indicates that the current account deficit in Turkey become a structural problem. It is observed that tourism revenues increase the current account deficit in the short term. It is determined that the increases in the exchange rate start to decrease the current account deficit in the very short term.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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