Özet:

In this study, it was investigated whether Okun misery (economic discomfort) index, as a macroeconomic performance criteria, is sensitive to exchange rates and consumer loan interest rates, in the sample of Turkey for 2005Q1-2020Q4 periods with the help of econometric methods that also take into structural breaks. The fact that there are no studies examining the effects of exchange rates and loan interest rates on the index in the literature and that structural breaks are taken into account makes the study distinctive in terms of content and subject. According to the results of both standard unit root tests (ADF, PP and KPSS) and Kapetanios (2005) unit root test with multiple breaks, all series were found to be stationary at the first difference. The estimation of long-run coefficients and short-run error correction models of the series were obtained by DOLS method. Cointegration among the series were determined by the Maki (2012) method. The coefficients of both independent variables are positive and statistically significant. In addition, causality relationship among the series in both longrun and shortrun was determined by VECM-based method. According to empirical findings, when Turkish Lira depreciates by 1 unit, the misery index rises by approximately 0.89 points, while misery index rises by 0.10 points when loan interest rates increase by 1 point.

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