Özet:

The real exchange rate, foreign trade and economic growth relationship have become one of the most important topics in economic literature to learn about the economic structure of a country and to make forecasts about the future. The real value of the currency used as a means of payment in the flow of goods and services between countries is determining on exports, imports and external balance. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of foreign trade limits and real currency rates on economic growth in Turkey during the 2000-2018 period, within the framework of time series analysis.  The real non-profit for economic growth is a variable depending on domestic profits; other macroeconomic independent variables are real capital stock, employment, foreign trade limits and real effective currency. The delay was made using the distributed Otoregressive Integration Border Test (ARDL) and the extended Granger Cause Test with errors, according to the analysis results: the increases in real effective exchange rates have a negative impact on non-profit domestic revenue. Because increasing exchange rate reduces the value of the TL against foreign currencies, increasing the cost of import goods and the cost of external financing. The increased cost of import goods means the increased cost of production. Increases in real foreign trade volume have a positive impact on real non-profit domestic revenue. There is also a two-way causal relationship between the growth rate in the volume of foreign trade and real economic growth. From the rate of growth in the real currency, to the real economic growth and to the real volume of foreign trade, there is a one-way causal relationship.

Anahtar Kelimeler: