Özet:

The fact that the Mortgage Crisis, which started in the USA due to the bubble formations in the real estate (or housing) market, turned into one of the most important financial crises in history on a global scale has created a dramatic experience in the macroeconomic consequences of the bubbles in the real estate. In this context, in this study, it is aimed that possible bubbles in the real estate market is detected between January 2010 and July 2021 in TR71 region (Niğde, Nevşehir, Aksaray, Kırşehir and Kırıkkale) as well as Turkey (general). In this direction, the Generalized SADF method was used to detect multiple bubbles in the real estate market, while the Backwards SADF method was used to determine the start and end dates of bubble formations. The GSADF test results demonstrate that there are bubbles in the real estate market for both samples. According to the results of the BSADF test results, in the data period, it has been determined that there are 4 bubbles formation periods for Turkey in general, including 2013M02-2013M12, 2014M06-2017M07, 2018M02-2019M10 and 2020M06-2020M08; and there are 3 bubbles formation periods for the TR71 Region, including 2011M12-2012M01, 2012M11-2013M02 and 2018M02-2019M06. However, since the sharp decrease in the share of mortgaged house sales in total house sales during bubble formation periods may be accepted as a sign that economic agents act rationally, it may be argued that this situation reduces the possibility of bubble formation turning into a possible financial crisis. Despite this, the delayed reaction of economic agents to bubble formation does not completely eliminate the possibility of real estate bubbles causing financial crisis in Turkey. For this reason, real estate and financial markets should be constantly inspecting and monitored through regulations.

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