Özet:

In the study, the relationship between credit volume and current account deficit was tested with the ARDL bounds test method after the unit root with LeeStrazich break for the 1998:1Q-2020:4Q period. According to the results, there is a cointegration and causality relationship between the increase in credit volume and the current account deficit, and the increase in the credit volume plays a role in increasing the current account deficit. Based on the long-term estimates of the empirical analysis, a 1% unit increase in the loan volume increases the current account deficit by 0.061%. Under the assumptions that many macroeconomic indicators affecting the current account deficit are stable (ceteris paribus), econometric analysis results are in line with theoretical expectations and support the thesis that the increase in credit volume increases the current account deficit. According to the results obtained, the 1% unit increase in the loans extended has a lower impact on the current account deficit (0.061). According to the error correction results obtained, short-term deviations in the series that move together in the long-term reach equilibrium in 3 periods.

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