Özet:

The approach to risk assessment in the process of optimizing the structure of costs and terms of realization investment decisions at presence resource constraints has been proposed. It was clarified the notion of operational risk of an investment decision on the example of the construction project. Based on the scenario-probabilistic approach on a concrete example investigated the dependence of the size of the predicted operational risk of the project on the timing of its implementation and the magnitude of the fixed and variable costs of the project. Quantitatively the level of operational risk is assessed as the possibility of exceeding factual variable costs of the project over the planned project variable costs in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Revealed that the decrease of the construction period and, accordingly, the intensification of the average monthly total costs expedient as long as the average monthly increase (relative and absolute) of volume of construction works is ahead of the monthly growth the level of fixed costs, that is, until you reach the famous in the economy marginal effect. The duration of the construction at which occurs this effect is less favorable to the forecast of operational risk (the risk is greatest, marginal income is minimal).The dependence found we recommend to take into account at formation of temporal and cost characteristics of investment decisions (projects) in contracting. Author Biography Ирина Валериевна Поповиченко, Prydniprovs’ka State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture, st. Chernyshevsky, 24a, Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, 49005 Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Professor the Department of Management, Project Management and Logistics

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