Özet:

The controversial rise in cryptocurrency prices has polarized the views on the role of these assets in the future of the financial system. The price ballons, one of the most critical indicators of market effectiveness, carry structural clues about the future of the market. The aim of this study is to explore the existence of speculative price ballons in cryptocurrencies that are traded on cryptocurrencies worldwide. For this purpose, the presence of speculative price ballons in the 8 most traded cryptocurrencies on the market, using data in daily frequency, was submitted to the Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, verified with 1000 repeated Monte Carlo Simulation. According to the analysis findings, there was no conclusion that price levels could be qualified as a speculative price balloon. On the other hand, the findings that price levels look above the internal values of these assets indicate the existence of non-speculative price ballons on the market. These results are interpreted as a sign that cryptocurrency prices will experience a gradual decline instead of a sudden price fall.  This study contributes to literature in terms of speculating the nature of price ballons in cryptocurrency markets, which is one of the most controversial topics in current financial literature.