Özet:

Food prices have a significant impact on policy decisions to control the domestic inflation rate. In this direction, the study aims to measure the impact of the transition of food prices to the consumer price index in the vulnerable five countries. The Crusader Five Group, which consists of India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey, identifies countries with high inflation rates, low growth performance and high open positions. The definition of these countries as vulnerable economies is based on Morgan Stanley’s economic report in August 2013. After the U.S. Central Bank (FED) announced it would reduce its bonds in May 2013, Morgan Stanley called the countries most affected by the Fed's statements in August of the same year as vulnerable economies. In this regard, this study covers the period 2013:08-2020:12. Statistical and dynamic panel data analysis (Generalized Moment Method; GMM) is a study that uses the FAO Consumer Price Index and FAO Food Price Index variables that reflect the local overall price trend on a monthly basis. The findings show that food prices in the vulnerable five countries have a significant and strong effect on the determination of the consumer price index during the relevant period.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Özet:

Food prices have a significant impact on policy decisions to control the domestic inflation rate. In this direction, the present study aimed to measure the pass-through effect of food prices to consumer price index in Fragile Five countries. The Fragile Five, consisting of India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey, is used to define countries with high inflation rates, low growth performance and high current account deficits. The definition of these countries as fragile economies is based on Morgan Stanley’s economic report in August 2013. After the Federal Reserve (FED) announced that it would reduce its bond purchases in May 2013, Morgan Stanley named the countries most affected by the FED's statements as fragile economies in August of the same year. For that reason, this study covered the period between 2013M8 and 2020M12. Static and dynamic panel data analysis (Generalized Moment Method; GMM) is used in the study, and FAO consumer price index and FAO food price index variables, which reflect the domestic general price trend on a monthly basis, are used. The findings showed that food prices had a significant and strong effect on determining the consumer price index in the Fragile Five countries in the relevant period.