Özet:

A methodological approach to the assessment of technical risks of an industrial enterprise based on logistics is determined and substantiated and it is recommended as a monitoring tool for risk events and their economic consequences, as well as the choice of technical risk management activities to minimize losses. Scientific novelty of the obtained results consists of the substantiation of theoretical and methodological provisions, practical recommendations about mechanisms for managing economic consequences of technical risks in micrologistics systems. The purpose of research is to generalize and improve scientific and methodological bases of management of technical risks of a micrologistics system of industrial enterprise and to develop tools and practical recommendations for assessing their economic consequences. In order to achieve the stated purpose, the following tasks are formulated and solved: to improve classification of economic consequences of technical risks in micrologistics systems; develop a system of management of technical risks’ economic consequences; improve mechanisms for assessing and forecasting economic consequences of technical risks. The theoretical and methodological basis of research is conceptual provisions and scientific developments of specialists on risk management issues published in monographs, periodicals, materials of scientific and practical conferences on the research topic. The tasks are solved by using general scientific and special methods, mathematical modelling methods based on a system approach. Results. The system of management of economic consequences of technical risks is substantiated that is a set of interconnected in time and space elements (subsystems) and their components, integrated into a certain integrity, and has a specific organizational structure, a set of economic methods, standards, models, and indicators of the impact of technical risks on production and service processes, as well as directions of decision-making concerning minimization of economic consequences of technical risks. Unlike existing tools that allow assessing technical risks as an indicator of equipment reliability, the proposed system provides economic component in addition to technical one by means of thorough evaluation of technical risks’ economic consequences on a single methodical basis by material flows and on the whole by the micrologistics system, provides increased efficiency, multivariance, and adequacy of calculations of the technical and economic and financial planned indicators of the enterprise. The main components of the system for managing the economic consequences of technical risks are: a mechanism for evaluating the economic consequences of technical risks that occurred in the reporting period; mechanism of forecasting the economic consequences of technical risks; monitoring of the economic consequences of technical risks of micrologistics system, which is a methodological diagnostic tool, created within the operating information system of the enterprise and provides continuous monitoring of technical risk objects, analysis and control over the indicators of their activities and the impact on financial results of micrologistics system under uncertainty. Practical implications. Mechanism for evaluating the economic consequences of technical risks allows determining actual costs and losses associated with the failure of equipment for all elements of the micrologistics system (from a single object to logistics flows) on a unified methodical basis, to create an information base for forecasting the level of technical risk and its economic consequences in the planned period in the conditions of monitoring, to substantiate adequate methods of management of the economic consequences of technical risks. Fuzzy model of the choice of activities is based on fuzzy production rules that reflect the scale of the ENTR and the level of TP. Fuzzy model of the choice is based on production rules that reflect the scale of ECTR and the level of TR. At the entrance to this model, the level of risk and the level of economic consequences, and at the exit – the class of activities that need to be adopted before implementation.

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