Özet:

It is important to know the flow trends in the basins where river flow changes cause floods and environmental problems arise. Knowing the changes in flow flows is necessary for the use and planning of water resources. Meriç River is in active region in terms of the remaining part of the residential and industrial activities within Turkey’s borders. In this context, the Lower Meriç River constitutes an important sample area for the research subject. In this study, the effects of current changes of the Lower Meriç River on floods were investigated. Non-parametric trend analysis methods were applied using 4 different stream gagging station (AGI) flow data. In order to determine monthly, annual and seasonal trends of the flows, Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis method was applied. Linear slopes of trends are calculated using Sen's Trend Slope Method. As a result of the analyses, upward trends were detected in the 4 stations examined. The most meaningful results were found in Nashville where floods were effective. In Kirişhane AGI have been seen positive trends in all months. An increasingly statistically significant trend was determined at an annual level of 5%. It has been observed that there is an increasing trend in every season. Especially in the fall season, a statistically significant trend with a positive direction was detected in the confidence interval of 1%. As a result, it was observed that the form of floods changed and there was a significant increase in floods depending on the annual and seasonal effects of current trends.

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