Abstract:

In Turkey, real estate investments, especially low-risk profiles investors, have often been one of the traditional investment instruments preferred by other financial investment instruments such as bond-bono and stock assets. In the past fifteen years, the construction sector in Turkey has shown strong growth, has taken the role of the locomotive in economic growth and has seen high levels of housing sales. As changes in housing loans interest rates directly affect debt costs, they affect housing demand and housing sales. In 2018, parallel to the rise in monetary policy interest rates, the upward trend in market interest rates and therefore in housing loans interest rates appears to have a negative impact on mortgage housing sales and a downward pressure on housing demand. The aim of this study is to study the relationship between housing loan interest rates and mortgage housing sales in the period 2003:01-2018:12 in Turkey using the Fourier Approach and to analyze the effectiveness of the credit channel, which is one of the channels of monetary policy transfer mechanism. In the study, using the monthly data obtained from the TCMB Electronic Data Distribution System, the relationship between housing loans interest rates and mortgage housing sales was studied using the Fourier Integration Test and the Fourier Granger Causal Test. The results of the study show that housing loans interest rates have a short and long-term impact on mortgage housing sales.

Keywords: