Özet:

Fiscal sustainability is analyzed by different techniques on the basis of government budget constraint. The method developed for fiscal sustainability by Hamilton and Flavin (1986) is based on determining whether the budget deficit or debt stock of the current term can be met with the budget surpluses in the future terms. Therefore, lifetime budget constraints are regarded as a sign of fiscal sustainability. In this study, the approach relating to sustainability of central government budget deficit is adapted to municipalities, and fiscal sustainability of municipalities in Turkey is examined on the basis of primary budget balance of the integrated municipalities. To analyze the fiscal sustainability of the municipalities, the stationarity of the primary budget balance variable, which expresses the difference between the municipal revenues and expenditures excluding interest payments, has been tested. In this context, quarterly data of the period of 2007-2017 is used, the series is made real with the real GDP index based on the year of 2010, and finally the natural logarithm of the series is used in the model. In analyzing the stationary of the primary budget balance series, ADF, PP and Ng-Perron Unit Root Tests as well as the unit root test of Zivot-Andrews (1992) were used to determine the structural breakage. The results of the analysis indicate that the primary budget balance series of the municipalities is stationary during this period. These findings reveals that the municipalities in Turkey ensure the fiscal sustainability criteria.

Anahtar Kelimeler: