Abstract:

Studies show that the southern regions of Turkey, within which also Mersin is located, would be greatly affected by possible climate change. According to a report published by NASA, the most severe droughts of the last 900 years are being witnessed in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. In this context, the study of the drought of Mersin in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin is of great importance. In this study, the drought analysis on, and the Thornthwaite climate classification for Mersin and the surrounding area was carried out (1965-2014). The Standardized Rainfall Index (SPI), Normal Percentage Index (PNI) and Erinç Drought Index were used in our study. Drought analyses on monthly, annual and seasonal scales were carried out. According to the Erinç drought index, extreme climatic conditions have been experienced frequently over the past 15 years. For example, the results of the SPI analysis show that there was a lack of precipitation in Mersin across all months of the year 2008. Again, 2009 became the driest year of the last 55 years. After 1968, the years 2001 and 2012 represent the most humid climatic conditions in Mersin. However there is a significant negative trend, especially throughout the winter months. 2001 and 2012 have been the most humid periods in recent years. If the monthly SPI values of these periods have been examined, it can be seen that the humidity of 2001 originated from heavy rainfalls which had occurred in December. The precipitation which fell in December 2001 was the highest rainfalls the last 55 years. Another drought index used in our study is PNI. The PNI was calculated using monthly rainfall data of 1965-2014 belonging to the Mersin station. It is seen that PNI results were consistent with those obtained from Erinç and SPI models. The year 2008 is recorded as being arid according to the PNI analysis. According to the PNI analysis, the year 2008 was observably arid while moist conditions for the year 2012 are worthy of note.

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