Özet:

The proposed paper gauges the extent of social mobility in Egypt via measuring intergenerational educational achievements of youth aged 13 to 25 using cross-section household data from Egypt Labour Market Panel Survey 2012. According to the sample, youth account for approximately 22per cent of the population, roughly 13 million individuals. We assume the schooling-gap is a good proxy for individuals’ future prospects across social classes, thus rendering educational achievement a measure of social mobility. The schooling-gap is used to compute a social mobility index (SMI) for all Egypt and selected sub-regions across alternative age groups and gender. Regression analysis is employed to relate the schooling gap to different socioeconomic regressors and household characteristics including household income and education. Fields decomposition is used to estimate the SMI and identify the percentage contribution of each regressor in explaining variance in social mobility. Differences in SMIs for various social classes are evaluated using bootstrapping methods. Educational mobility estimates for all Egypt suggest high social mobility within a closing gender gap with minor inclinations in favour of females. Diminishing intrafamilial discrimination appears towards educational attainment across all age groups. High mobility indexes are in alliance with the Egyptian government’s extensive educational expansion schemes. In response to such efforts, and in anticipation for thriving future prospects via labour market returns to education, youth have achieved world class quasi-convergence rates for schooling enrollment, quality notwithstanding. High social mobility succeeded in transforming urban but primarily rural labour force into a base of educated human capital. Most potential workers have become university graduates demanding higher returns to their invested education in dense urban cities, albeit unsuccessfully in the light of stagnant labour markets, pressing wages and work conditions downwards, thereby raising social tension. Policy implications of high social mobility accompanied by rising unemployment entails expanding rural and peripheral labour markets to absorb educated labour force at urban level returns. Ideally, no level of mobility could spur growth without social inclusion

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