Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki cari işlemler açığı kaynaklı kriz riskini etkileyen faktörleri belirleyebilmek amacıyla, Türkiye’nin 1974-2018 dönemi cari işlemler açığı, ekonomik büyüme, sermaye hareketleri, dış borç stoku ve petrol fiyatları verileri kullanılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlığı ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile sınanmış ve dış borç stoku haricindeki serilerin I(0), dış borç stoku serisinin ise I(1) olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Logit ve Probit analizleri sonucunda Türkiye’deki cari işlemler açığı kaynaklı kriz riskini; dış ticaret açığı, sermaye hareketleri ve dış borç stokundaki değişimlerin pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı düzeyde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Logit ve Probit analizleri sonrasında gerçekleştirilen marjinal analiz sonuçları istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunamamıştır.
In this study, in order to determine the factors that affect the risk of the current account deficit induced crisis in Turkey, the current account deficit, economic growth, capital flows, external debt stock and oil prices data are used for Turkey's 1974-2018 period. Stationarity of the series is tested by ADF and PP unit root tests and it is found that the series except external debt stock is I(0) and the external debt stock series is I(1). After Logit and Probit analysis, it is determined that the risk of the current account deficit induced crisis in Turkey is positively and statistically significantly affected by the changes in foreign trade deficit, capital movements and external debt stock. The results of the marginal analysis after Logit and Probit analyzes were not statistically significant.
In this study, in order to determine the factors that affect the risk of the current account deficit induced crisis in Turkey, the current account deficit, economic growth, capital flows, external debt stock and oil prices data are used for Turkey's 1974-2018 period. Stationarity of the series is tested by ADF and PP unit root tests and it is found that the series except external debt stock is I(0) and the external debt stock series is I(1). After Logit and Probit analysis, it is determined that the risk of the current account deficit induced crisis in Turkey is positively and statistically significantly affected by the changes in foreign trade deficit, capital movements and external debt stock. The results of the marginal analysis after Logit and Probit analyzes were not statistically significant.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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