Özet:

This study uses data for the period 1990-2021 under the Marshall-Lerner condition for 39 Asian countries to examine whether Asian countries' monetary policy actions to devalue their national currencies in order to maintain their foreign trade balance produce positive results. Sample countries are divided into three distinct groups based on their income levels, and each group is analyzed using new generation panel data methods. The stationarity of the series was tested using the stationarity test of Hadri and Kruzomi (2012), and all series were determined to be stationary in the first difference. The presence of cointegration between the series was examined using the Westerlund (2008) Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. Homogeneity of cointegration coefficients was analyzed using Swamy's (1970) Delta Test and Pesaran and Yamagata's (2008) Corrected Delta Test, and the coefficients were found to be homogeneous. Panel regression analyses were conducted using the CUP-FM method of Bai and Kao (2006), and it was found that the Marshall-Lerner condition, the focus of the study, did not apply to lower-middle income Asian countries while applying to upper-middle income and high income Asian countries. Also, Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) causality test showed that the causality relationship between the real exchange rate and foreign trade did not apply to lower-middle income Asian countries while applying to upper-middle income and high income Asian countries. In light of all these assessments, for the relevant period and sample, the study brought to light the finding that the exchange rate is not a good policy instrument in lower-middle income Asian countries, while it is a viable policy option in upper-middle income and high income Asian countries.

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