Özet:

Although research has been done for a century on conjunctive waves, a clear conclusion on the causes and nature of conjunctive waves has not yet been achieved. The structure of the waves must be well analyzed in order to be able to cope with the crises and stagnations caused by the volatility of the market economies. The aim of this study is to experimentally test the determiners of conjunctive waves for developed and developing countries. To this goal, panel time series analysis was carried out using the annual data of the G7 and E7 countries from the period 1960 to 2017 using conjunctive waves, public spending, cash supply, total factor efficiency, choice-representing doll variable, trade transparency ratio and agricultural production variables. In the application section, horizontal cutting addiction, second generation unit root tests and second generation panel integration tests have been carried out. The study finds that both the G7 countries and the E7 countries do not have a stable process. Therefore, the convergence of the conjoncture, which is called the deviation of non-profit domestic harvest from the long-term growth trend, does not turn into the long-term trend value over time. Therefore, policy makers need to interfere with the conjunctive waves using active economic policies. The model of integration estimates that government spending and money supply in both developed and developing countries are reducing the conjunctive waves, and trade transparency is increasing the conjunctive waves. While the overall factor efficiency in developed countries has an increasing impact on the conjunctive waves, elections in developing countries have a positive impact on the conjunctive. There is no meaningful relationship between the share of agricultural production in revenue and the conjunctive waves.

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