Özet:

Objective: It was aimed to reveal to what extent the export prices of raisins were reflected in the commodity exchange price and the interaction between these prices and the export amount. Material and Methods: In this study, 128-month Turkish raisin export unit price and monthly average price data of Manisa Commodity Exchange (domestic price) since September 2010 were subjected to univariate time series analysis. In the second stage of the study, VAR analysis was used by adding the Turkish raisin export quantity series to the price series. Results: In the analyzed period, when Manisa Commodity Exchange prices and export unit prices were compared , it was determined that an average of 80% of export revenue was received by the producers. At the beginning of the 2021-2022 production season, it was estimated that the export price of raisins would be around 2 USD/kg, and the commodity exchange price would be around 1.40 USD/kg. It is predicted that the increase in production areas will be continued when the commodity exchange raisin price is at around 2 USD/kg and above, while the output growthin production area will be stop at 1.30 USD/Kg level. Conclusion: It has been determined that there was a reciprocal time-delayed relationship between the Commodity Exchange raisin price and raisin export price and Commodity Exchange raisin price and export quantity. It was found that the Commodity Exchange raisin price was the most influential among the variables.

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