Özet:

Quantitative forecasts of the hydrological effects of climate change are useful in understanding and therefore ensuring their management of water resources problems such as future floods and droughts. The aim of this study is to present the preliminary results of a study aimed at determining the impact of climate change on the river flow and to evaluate the potential urban water use and environmental impacts for the preparation of sustainable pool management policies to reduce the negative effects of climate change. In this context, the current hydrological status was first revealed by the Land and Water Assessment Instrument (SWAT) operating in the Yuvacık Barj Lake Pool in the Marmara Region. Representative Concentration Pathways for Turkey (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, produced according to the scenarios of 20 km resolution climate change projection data using the hydrological model for Turkey has been operated between 2021-2099 years. Thus, the impact of climate change on the amount of water and sediment has been tried to be predicted over the years concerned. According to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the average annual rainfall is expected to decrease by 2.23% and 2.062%, and the temperature values are expected to increase by 1.24 and 0.03o C, and the rainfall is expected to increase between April and August. The average monthly flow values of the Kazandere, Kirazdere and Serindere leather that feeds the Yuvacık Barge in the pool in 2006-2014 are 0.55, 1.28 and 1.94 m3 /s, respectively. These values, compared to the flow values modeled according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2021-2099, are 0.14 and 0.17 m3 /s, 0.41 and 0.33 m3 /s, 0.86 and 0.68 m3 /s, respectively. These results indicate that the skin that feeds the bargain will be reduced in the flow bulbs. Furthermore, it has been estimated that the pic flow values, in Kazandere and Serindere, have been significantly reduced from approximately 8 m3 / s to 2 m3 / s. The average monthly amount of 49 tons of sediment measureed for the years 2010-2014 at the Serindere station is RCP 4 for the years 2021-2099. According to 5 scenarios, the monthly average is 247.58 tons and according to RCP 8.5 scenarios 332.21 tons. According to both scenarios, an increase in the estimated amount of rain between April and August and an increase in temperature values will cause mechanical erosion in the pool. Therefore, the amount of sediment moving by the stream is expected to increase. The Yuvacık Barjı Sakarya and Izmit is used to meet the need for drinking water in the provinces of Sakarya and Izmit, as well as to provide water management in the periods of irrigation, flood prevention and drought. Therefore, the decrease in the debt values of the skin that feeds the bargain lake will result in the decrease in the water volume of the bargain lake, and it is necessary to make a future water management plan for the product design and the use of drinking water in the areas swallowed by the bargain lake. Furthermore, the fall in the debris of the skin that feed the barge lake will cause a decrease in the forest areas in the pool, a decrease in the forest areas will cause an increase in the amount of erosion. This will shorten the time of use of the barge lake, as it will cause an increase in the amount of sediment coming to the barge lake.

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