Abstract:

This study examines the relationship between exchange rate changes and the BOP of TÜRKİYE. While utilizing quarterly data ranging from 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q4, the study employs ARDL approach to estimate the long run and the short run relationship between the mentioned variables. To make it sure that none of the series are I(2), the study uses Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests for unit root testing of the series. Data are taken from the Central Bank of the Republic of TÜRKİYE (CBRT) and TURKSTAT databases. The study used bound cointegration testing approach to check for the existence of the long run relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that exchange rate and openness are insignificant in the long run, while CPI, real GDP, and IR were found to be statistically significant. Whereas the exchange rate, CPI, and real GDP are the factors significantly influencing the BOP in the short run.

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