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Enflasyon 1980-2000 yılları arasında Türkiye ekonomisinde önemli bir sorundu. 2001 ekonomik krizinden sonra uygulamaya konulan enflasyon hedeflemesi programı nispeten başarılı olmuştur. Bununla birlikte, 2018 yılının sonuna doğru fiyatlarda görülen artışlar bu sorunu tekrar gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı, enflasyonun yerel ve küresel belirleyicilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Çalışmada enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi araştırılan değişkenler GSYİH, döviz kuru, küresel emtia fiyatları ve küresel gıda fiyatlarıdır. Ampirik analiz yöntemi olarak sınır testi ve ARDL tercih edilmiştir. Analiz 2003-2018 ve 2009-2018 dönemlerini kapsamakta ve çeyrek dönemlik veri kullanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları 2003-2018 döneminde döviz kuru, küresel emtia fiyatları ve gelirin enflasyon üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. 2009-2018 döneminde ise döviz kuru ve küresel emtia fiyatları enflasyonu pozitif olarak etkilemektedir. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlar küresel kriz sonrası dönemde enflasyon üzerinde küresel faktörlerin etkisinin arttığını göstermektedir.
Inflation was a major problem in the Turkish economy between 1980 and 2000. The inflation targeting program implemented after the 2001 economic crisis has been relatively successful. However, the price increases that were seen by the end of 2018 have brought this problem back to the agenda. The aim of the study in this framework is to empirically analyze the local and global indicators of inflation. The influence on inflation in the study are the variables studied: GDP, exchange rate, global goods prices and global food prices. As an empirical analysis method, the limit test and ARDL are preferred. The analysis covers the periods 2003-2018 and 2009-2018 and the quarterly period data is used. The results of the analysis showed that in the period 2003-2018 the exchange rate, global goods prices and income had a positive impact on inflation. In the period 2009-2018, exchange rates and global goods prices have a positive impact on inflation. The results from the analysis show that the influence of global factors on inflation increased in the post-global crisis period.
Inflation was a serious problem in the Turkish economy between 1980-2000. The inflation targeting program implemented after the 2001 economic crisis was relatively successful. However, the increase in prices towards the end of 2018 brought this issue back to the agenda once again. In this context, the aim of the study is to empirically analyze the local and global determinants of inflation. In the study, the variables that investigated the effects on inflation are the gross domestic product, exchange rate, global commodity prices and global food prices. The bound test and ARDL were preferred as empirical analysis methods. The analysis includes the periods 2003-2018 and 2009-2018 and quarterly data is used. The results of the analysis indicate that exchange rate, global commodity prices and gross domestic product have a positive effect on inflation in the period of 2003-2018. In the 2009-2018 period, exchange rate and global commodity prices affect inflation positively. The results obtained from the analysis point that the impact of global factors on inflation increasing in the period after the global crisis.
Field : Filoloji; İlahiyat; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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