Özet:

Forest fire is a disaster that destroys all living and non-living beings in the unity of life in the forest by burning and has economic and ecological damages. In recent years, temperatures and droughts that have been above the seasonal norms due to global warming have increased the risk of forest fires. In order to minimize the damage caused by forest fires, early warning, fast and effective intervention is very important in firefighting. Machine learning methods are used in early warning systems today. In this study, it is aimed to control and reduce the effects of fires by predicting possible forest fires in order to fight forest fires. The dataset for the wildfire prediction model was developed from the official website of NASA's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Distributed Active Archives (DAAC). A forest fire prediction model was created by processing these data with machine learning methods. The data set was adapted to the classification model by applying various preprocessing steps. With the feature selection techniques, the least number of feature subsets were selected by providing the highest level of data integrity without using the entire data set. By choosing the most important and useful features in finding the target variable, a model was created with 6 different classification algorithms, namely Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbor and Naive Bayes. Validation process was performed to evaluate model performance and hyperparameter optimization was performed for best parameter selection. Among the classification algorithms used in this study, an accuracy rate of 97% was obtained with Random Forest and 96% with Naive Bayes, which is one of the two most successful algorithms with the validation process.

Anahtar Kelimeler: