Özet:

In this work, the performance of reliability methods for the probabilistic analysis of local scour at a bridge pier is investigated. The reliability of bridge pier scour is one of the important issues for the risk assessment and safety evaluation of bridges. Typically, the depth prediction of bridge pier scour is estimated using deterministic equations, which do not consider the uncertainties related to scour parameters. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability analysis of bridge pier scour is required. In the recent years, a number of efficient reliability methods have been proposed for the reliability-based assessment of engineering problems based on simulation, such as Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), subset simulation (SS), importance sampling (IS), directional simulation (DS), and line sampling (LS). However, no general guideline recommending the most appropriate reliability method for the safety assessment of bridge pier scour has yet been proposed. For this purpose, we carried out a comparative study of the five efficient reliability methods so as to originate general guidelines for the probabilistic assessment of bridge pier scour. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was also carried out to find the effect of individual random variables on the reliability of bridge pier scour.

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