Abstract:

The migration of labour from rural areas towards urbanized areas is a significant aspect of urbanization in developing countries. In the labour model developed by Harris-Todaro (1970), increased urban fees increases the expected fees in the urban sector and this promotes the migration from rural areas to urban areas. However, it will be inevitable for a section of this labour to become unemployed when the migration wave comes more than the employment possibilities created in the urban sector. Provided that the flow of labour goes on, the urban unemployment increases and creates what is known as Todaro Paradox. In this study, the causality relationship between internal migration, unemployment, and urbanization in NUTS 2 regions of Malatya, Van, Gaziantep, Shanlıurfa, and Mardin was studied within the scope of Harris-Todaro model and Todaro Paradox. To this end, the causality relationships among the variables were analyzed using panel causality tests between 2008-2020 data. The findings of analysis obtained from NUTS 2 regions of Malatya, Van, Gaziantep, Shanlıurfa, and Mardin show that there is a unilateral causality relationship from unemployment rates towards net migration rates. Also, a unilateral causality relationship was detected from net migration rate towards urbanization in these five regions overall. These results show that the Harris-Todaro model is not valid in NUTS 2 regions of Malatya, Van, Gaziantep, Shanlıurfa, and Mardin and that Todaro paradox is valid. In these results, the fact that Todaro Paradox is valid means that instant increases in the employment opportunities within the urban residence units of these regions or in the other investments lead to an increase in urban unemployment after some time by promoting the migration towards urban centers. Increasing the employment opportunities in the rural residence units of Malatya, Van, Gaziantep, Shanlıurfa, and Mardin NUTS 2 regions could be effective in decreasing the unemployment in these regions and in increasing rural income. Thanks to this, the negative effects of migration flows towards urban residence units on the socio-economic indicators of Turkey can be minimized.

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