Özet:

Uncertainty is a phenomenon that can be seen in almost every area of daily life. Decision units in the economy cannot predict the consequences of their decisions in case of increased uncertainty. Uncertainty situations that can be seen in economic life may cause an economic shock and unexpected consequences of this shock. Epidemics, wars and sanctions applied after or during the war in the globalizing world cause economic and political uncertainties. Decisions taken under uncertainty lead economic agents to act more cautiously, as future situations cannot be foreseen. These cautious behaviors cause problems in employment related to production and consumption, in other words unemployment problem, decrease in incomes of households and thus decrease in investment-savings ratios. Therefore, examining the effects of uncertainties on economic indicators is important in terms of ensuring efficiency and productivity in the market. The aim of this study is to test the existence of the long-term relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index and unemployment rate with quarterly data covering the 1996-2022 period for the G-7 countries. For this purpose, the panel fourier cointegration test, which is a new generation test that takes into account nonlinear structural breaks and cross-section dependency, was applied. As a result of the analysis, a long-term relationship was determined between the economic policy uncertainty index and the unemployment rate in each of the G-7 countries. Therefore, it is important for the unemployment rate not to experience uncertainty in economic policies.

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