Abstract:

Drought is a complex natural hazard that impacts ecosystems and society in many ways. Droughts are an inevitable consequence of meteorological variability, and the design of water resource infrastructure and management strategies to mitigate their effects requires assessment of the risk. The identification, monitoring and characterization of droughts are of great importance in water resources planning and management. One of the methods used to determine drought is the drought indexes with the help of precipitation values. In this study, Samsun Meteorological Observation Station (17030-MOS) analyzed the drought analysis in two stages using the total precipitation values (mm) recorded between 1960-2015. First stage drought indices; Standardized Rainfall Index (SPI) and Normal Percentage Index (PNI) values were found. Examining the behavior of index values in the past and predicting how future behavior will be is important for determining long-term drought. For this purpose, the trend analysis of the index values obtained in the second phase of the study was examined using the Mann-Kendall method. When the results of the first stage were examined, both normal and normal drought symptoms were encountered. In the second step, it was determined that the index values tended to increase directions according to both methods. However, this trend was determined not to be statistically significant.

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