Özet:

Various models have been reproduced in the world in order to estimate solar energy potential. However, these models ought to be prepared regionally so that they can yield certain and stable results. The aim of this study is to investigate global solar radiation in Adıyaman province located in South-Eastern part of Turkey. The models developed peculiar to five different locations accepted in present literature were inspected and were found to be convenient for the region. Five different models (linear, quadratic, logarithmic, exponential and power) peculiar to the location were developed with the help of values taken from web page of Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EIE 1985-2015) in order that the region will have absolute radiation. After average solar radiation of Adıyaman province was estimated with the parameters of the developed model, empirical coefficients, a, b and c were found. It was observed that the results obtained from the models were in good coherence with present meteorological values. The results were compared to nine different statistical methods such as statistical comparison methods, relative percentage error (e), determination coefficients (R2 ),mean percentage error (MPE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), relative squared error (SSRE), relative standard error (RSE), mean deviation error (MBE), square root error (RMSE) and t-statistic (t-sat). According to statistical error results, H/Ho=-1,1463 (S/So)^2+2,0327(S/So)-0,3164 polynomial equation was obtained and out of this equation together with R2(% 99.31), MBE ( 21,48), RMSE (155,78), t-stat (0,4618) values and the most stable approach in estimating global solar radiation onto horizontal plane for Adıyaman was found.

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