Özet:

Seismic hazard analyses form the basis of studies to predict future earthquakes and to reduce the possible destructive effects of them. According to the seismic hazard map, Turkey is exposed to seismic hazards at levels ranging from medium to high. This study includes Antalya, Burdur, Isparta, Denizli, Afyon, Uşak, Muğla with boundaries by Kütahya and Manisa, Aydın and Agean Sea, Konya and Mediterreanean Sea. According to the New Turkey Earthquake Regions Map, PGA values of the identified seismic zones in the study area are over 0.2 g and averagely 0.32 g. In this study, the Turkish instrumental earthquake catalogue data is used for analysing the seismic parameters of the identified zones. The study area is bordered by a circle with a radius of 220 km centered in Bucak (Burdur). Area is divided into five seismic zones according to the intensity of earthquakes and seismotectonic structure of the zones. The magnitude recurrence parameters are analyzed based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The recurrence parameters a and b vary in the range of 2.92 – 4.12, and 0.86 – 0.99 respectively. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake with magnitude greater 5.5 for the study area is average 83.79% in future 50 years and 17.18% in future 100 years with magnitude greater 7.0. Besides seismic hazard analyses, it is important to consider local rock/soil conditions of the field in the site selection process of engineering structures in this region, where the earthquake hazard is high.

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