Özet:

Soil erosion and sedimentation are a problem of interest for many land uses across the Albania, particularly for agricultural areas where the soil surface is disturbed by harvest, planting, and cultivation of the soil. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change and agricultural land management on surface erosion and suspended sediment concentrations in the Lakes Prespa basin. Many hydrological models have been developed which examine suspended sediment. The DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) model was used to evaluate channel and soil surface erosion, as well as sediment yield in streams. In this study, the DHSVM model was calibrated using data for the period of (2010–2016), and was also used to predict results for the year 2045 using statistically downscaled global climate data. The results show that as the projected climate–driven intensity of storms increase, more runoff is predicted in the Lakes Prespa basin. Three tillage scenarios were incorporated into DHSVM for winter wheat cultivation: conventional till, reduced till, and no till. Sensitivity of the model to surface erosion and changes in channel sediment bed depth were both evaluated for several parameters that relate to erosion. Observations have shown that suspended sediment concentrations can drastically increase, but model results do not yet display large fluctuations in suspended sediment concentrations which are typically observed in nature as a result of storm and erosion events. In the long term, continued improvements to this preliminary model of the Lakes Prespa basin can provide better insight into the effects of climate change on the riparian habitat of carp in the basin and the sediment budget of the surrounding area.

Anahtar Kelimeler: