Abstract:

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of real exchange rate, inflation and interest rates on foreign trade in Turkey, using the annual data for the period 1970-2021, theoretically and practically, with symmetrical and asymmetrical time series analysis methods. The time series analysis method was used in the research, and the stationarity of the series; It was examined by Zivot and Andrews (1992) and Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) tests that allow for structural break. Cointegration relations between series; It has been tested with symmetrical cointegration methods Hatemi-J (2008) and asymmetric cointegration methods by Granger and Yoon (2002) and Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012). Causality relationships between series; Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) tested for symmetric causality and Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality tests. In cointegration analysis; In Hatemi-J (2008) structural break cointegration test, it was concluded that only the series in the trade balance model have a cointegration relationship. Granger and Yoon (2002) asymmetric cointegration test does not find hidden cointegration in any model, Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012) asymmetric cointegration test; He could not find cointegration between the negative components of the series in the export model, but showed that there are hidden cointegration relationships between the positive components of the series in the export model and between both components of the series in the import model and the trade balance model. As a result of the analyzes made; In Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) symmetric causality test, one-way causality relations from exports to inflation and average real national income per capita in the world and from interest to imports were found. In Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test; It has been revealed that there are asymmetric causality relations from exports to interest, from imports to inflation and the average real national income per capita in the world. Symmetrical and asymmetrical analyzes made; It has been revealed that Turkey's foreign trade deficit problem has complex relations that cannot be solved by raising the nominal exchange rate alone.

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