Özet:

Divorce cases are one of the main parameter that influence the demographic structure of a society. In order to explain and evaluate this parameter, investigating changes throughout space and time therefore determining spatial autocorrelation and temporal trend is important. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and geostatistical methods serve important advantages for investigating spatial and temporal changes of such cases. In this study by calculating the crude divorce rates for provinces in Turkey between 2001 and 2020, for 20 years, spatial autocorrelation and temporal changes of crude divorce cases have been investigated. In the study, testing the spatial distribution pattern of divorce cases and modelling the trend of 20 years’ period have been aimed. For spatial distribution, Moran’s I, Local Moran’s I and Hot Spot Analysis; for trend analysis Mann Kendall have been carried out. Consequently, according to result of Moran's I analysis, it has been determined that divorce cases clustered strongly across Turkey. Local Moran's I analysis has revealed that low values ​​clustered in the southeastern part of Turkey, while high values ​​clustered in two separate areas in southwestern Anatolia and central Anatolia. By using Hot Spot analysis, both hot and cold spots have been determined at 99%, 95% and 90% confidence intervals. The result of Mann Kendall trend analysis has revealed that there is a significant increase in the 99% confidence interval across Turkey. Provinces with increases and decreases in 99%, 95% and 90% confidence intervals have been determined considering each province. Finally, a significant decrease has been observed in 9 provinces while a significant increase in 57 provinces, and in 15 provinces there has been no significant change.

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