Özet:

In this study, it is aimed to determine the seasonal effect on the reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Thus, the estimation of seasonal unit roots and unit root removal method, modeling and estimation of data accordingly will be more consistent. For this, quarterly data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reserve amount between 1983: 2 - 2020: 4 were used. Whether the time series consisting of these data has a seasonal effect was investigated with the seasonal unit root test used by HEGY (1990). As a result of the seasonal unit root test analysis performed with the HEGY test for the CBRT reserve series, it was found that all models at zero frequency contain unit root. There is a seasonal unit root in models with a fixed term and seasonal dummy variables with a semi-annual frequency and a fixed term + trend and seasonal dummy variables. In addition, it was determined that there is no seasonal unit root for all models specified in ¼ and ¾ quarterly frequencies.

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