Özet:

The main objective of the study is to find out the determinants of petroleum supply and also to forecast the future supply of petroleum in Pakistan for the period of 1972-2018.Johenson Cointegration technique is employed to get the required objective. It is assumed that GFCF, FDI, FOP and Technology are the main determinants of petroleum supply in the country based on past literature. Sign of the coefficient of the variables are in line with theory. The study concludes that GFCF, FOP and Technology are statistically significant determinants of total petroleum supply in Pakistan. The study forecasted the petroleum supply in Pakistan from 2019 to 2030 by using ARIMA model. The results show that average forecast value of total petroleum 11864.3 by 2030. According to the ARIMA forecasted results, there is increasing trend in the supply petroleum products. The finding of the study shows that the price of petroleum and technology has positive impact on total petroleum supply. The results showed that price elasticity of petroleum supply is inelastic. The results of forecasted values showed the increasing trend in supply of petroleum.

Anahtar Kelimeler: