Özet:

This study presented the development of alternative scenarios of energy planning for the transportation sector. The case study is the transportation system of Yogyakarta Province of Indonesia. The transportation sector has the highest demand of energy among all another sector in this Province. Therefore, this sector has a very significant contribution to emit Greenhouse Gas pollutant. Four individual scenarios ware developed which are Business as Usual, Mode Change, Fuel Switch, and Efficient Vehicle. Business as Usual scenario is a reference scenario, and the last three scenarios are alternative scenarios. Also, an integrated scenario that consists of all alternative scenarios was also developed. The analysis of the projection of energy demand and Greenhouse Gas emission, in the form of CO2, NOx, and CH4, was conducted. The contribution of developed scenarios in low-carbon energy planning for the transportation sector was analyzed. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning software was utilized to simulate all developed scenarios. As an individual scenario, efficient vehicle scenario resulted in the highest reduction in energy demand. At the end of the projection period, this scenario reduced energy demand for the transportation sector by 15.82% compared to the reference scenario. Mitigation scenario that integrates all alternative scenarios reduced energy demand by 20.45% compared to the reference scenario in 2050. By implementing an efficient vehicle scenario, global warming potential can be reduced by 15.80%. The implementation of an integrated scenario reduced global warming potential by 24.76% compared to the reference scenario.

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