Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between the real effective currency rate, export and import in Turkey between the period 2003:01 and 2018:06. The stagnation of the variables was analyzed by the unit root test (Zivot-Andrews) that allowed a structural breakdown. The study was conducted by Gregory-Hansen’s structural breakable matching test to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the variables. According to Gregory-Hansen's matching test results; considering the breakdown in the stability and trend, it is possible to talk about the long-term relationship between the variables. The causality relationship between the variables is Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test and Balciers etc. (2010) Boostrap Cyan windows have been studied by causality test. Fourier Toda-Yamamoto’s causality test found that there was a one-way causality relationship from the real effective currency to the import. It has also been shown that there is a single-sided cause from the export to the real effective currency currency. The balls vd. In 2010 the causality test found that the variables had a relationship from different months to months.

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