Abstract:

In this article, using the monthly data of the period 1997:12-2019:12 of the Turkish economy, the bruto and net total capital revenues and the determinants of excessive increases in their components are investigated. Probit model forecasts show that both domestic and global factors are important for excessive increases in portfolio and other investment revenues, while for excessive increases in total capital revenues and direct foreign investment revenues, domestic variables have a higher explanatory power. According to the findings, data on gross capital revenues give more meaningful results than data on net revenues. Furthermore, increases in domestic industrial production, real currency, global growth and global liquidity raise the likelihood of excessive growth in the components of capital income except for direct foreign investment. The reaction of excessive increases in direct investment revenues to certain domestic and global variables is quite different from the other components. Furthermore, excessive increases in gross portfolio revenues are more sensitive to financial fragility, while excessive increases in gross direct investment and other gross investment revenues are more sensitive to macroeconomic instability.

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