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Büyüme, döviz girişi, ödemeler dengesi, yatırım fırsatları ve yeni istihdam alanları üzerindeki olumlu etkisi açısından turizm, günümüzde ekonomideki en önemli sektörlerden biridir. Turizm gelirlerinin reel ekonomik büyümeye ve reel döviz kuru ile etkileşimini araştırmak da bu çalışmanın temel motivasyonudur. Bu motivasyon ile, bu çalışmada 2003Q1-2020Q1 dönemine ait çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak turizm gelirleri, reel hale getirilen ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bu araştırma Zivot ve Andrews yapısal kırılmalı birim kök sınaması, Johansen eş bütünleşme analizi, FMOLS ve DOLS yöntemleri ile katsayı tahminleri ve son olarak Toda-Yamamoto testi ile nedensellik analizi aracılığıyla yapılmıştır. Araştırma sonucu olarak, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin olduğu, bağımlı değişken reel milli geliri açıklayan bağımsız değişkenler turizm gelirleri ve reel döviz kurunun olasılık değerlerinin anlamlı oldukları ve kat sayı işaretlerinin pozitif oldukları görülmüştür. Reel döviz kurunun reel milli geliri etkile gücü turizm gelirlerine nispeten daha fazladır. Yapısal kırılma tarihlerinden 2016Q2 ve 2017Q1 anlamlı çıkması, bu dönemdeki terör olaylarına, Rusya ile yaşanan gerilime ve darbe girişiminin tüm dünyada yankı uyandırması ile açıklanabilir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizine göre reel milli gelirden ve reel döviz kurundan turizm gelirlerine doğru pozitif ve tek yönlü bir Granger nedensellik vardır.
In terms of its positive impact on growth, currency entry, payment balance, investment opportunities and new employment areas, tourism is one of the most important sectors in the economy today. The study of the real economic growth and the interaction of tourism revenues with the real exchange rate is also the main motivation of this study. With this motivation, this study used quarterly data for the 2003Q1-2020Q1 period to investigate the relationship between tourism revenues, realised economic growth and exchange rate. This research was done through the Zivot and Andrews structural broken unit root test, the Johansen parallel integration analysis, the estimates of the ratio with the FMOLS and DOLS methods and finally the causality analysis with the Toda-Yamamoto test. As a result of the study, it has been found that there is a long-term relationship between the variables, depending on the variable, the independent variables that explain the real national income, the tourism income and the probability values of the real currency are meaningful and the multi-number signs are positive. The real currency currency’s real national income influencing power is relatively greater than the tourism income. The meaningful outcome from the structural breakdowns dates 2016Q2 and 2017Q1 can be explained by the terror events during this period, the tension and attempts to strike with Russia in the world. According to Toda-Yamamoto Cause Analysis, there is a positive and one-way Granger Cause from real national income and from real currency to tourism income.
Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the economy today in terms of its positive impact on growth, foreign exchange inflows, balance of payments, investment opportunities and new employment areas. Researching the interaction of tourism revenues with real economic growth and real exchange rate is the main motivation of this study. With this motivation, the relationship between tourism revenues, realized economic growth and exchange rate has been investigated by using quarterly data for the period 2003Q1-2020Q1. This research has been conducted through Zivot and Andrews structural break unit root test, Johansen cointegration analysis, coefficient estimates with FMOLS and DOLS methods, and causality analysis with Toda-Yamamoto test. As the result of the research, it was observed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables, the probability values of tourism revenues and the real exchange rate, the independent variables that explain the dependent variable real national income were significant and the coefficient signs were positive. The power of real exchange rate to affect real national income is relatively higher than tourism revenues. The significant structural break dates for 2016Q2 and 2017Q1 can be explained by the global repercussions of the terrorist incidents in this period, the tension with Russia and the coup attempt. According to Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, there is a positive and one-way Granger causality from real national income and real exchange rate to tourism revenues.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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