Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the population growth trend and properties of Turkey between 1925 and 2015 and estimate the maximum level to be reached in the future by using mathematical growth functions of Verhulst and Gompertz. The study used SAS software. Additionally, the study calculates and charts absolute and relative growth rates of population through the curves. The representation of Turkish population data at an abstract level was targeted with mathematical analysis and statistical application. After the successful results were taken from the mathematical representation and statistical proof stages, forecasts for the future were made. Thus, a theoretical framework with mathematical growth models, statistical analyses, and predictions related to the future of the Turkish population is defined. The necessity of using logistic and Gompertz growth functions for population analysis is explained in detail. These functions analyze growth with the assumption that population rapidly increases first, then the rate of increase slows down, achieving a maximum level at upper asymptote (carrying capacity). There is a limit to growth in these functions based on the geography and resources of the country. The first derivatives of the growth functions are used to calculate annual absolute growth and average annual growth rates of the population. The second derivatives have been used to calculate change amount of absolute growth figures and reflection points of functions. Additionally, some thoughts on Gompertz function and American experience on population are explained in detail.

Keywords: