Görüntüleme
40
İndirme
10
İşsizlik, tüm ekonomilerin önemle üzerinde durması gereken makroekonomik sorunlardan biridir. Üretim maliyetlerindeki artış ve teknolojik gelişmeler yeni iş kollarının doğmasına sebep olurken, birçok işkolunun da makineleşmeyle birlikte şekil değiştirdiği görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de işsizlik histerisi, hem toplamda hem de kadın ve erkek işsizliği bağlamında ayrı ayrı incelenecektir. İşsizlik histerisi kavramı, herhangi bir şok durumunda işsizlik serilerinin ortalamaya dönme eğilimi göstermemesi biçiminde açıklanabilir. Eğer, seri birim köke sahip değilse yani durağan bir özellik sergiliyorsa, histeri etkisi taşımadığı ve herhangi bir şok durumunda şokun etkisinin geçici olduğu belirtilecektir. Eğer, serinin birim köke sahip olduğu yani durağan olmadığı belirlenirse, bir şok sonrasında seri ortalamaya dönmeyecek ve şokun etkisi uzun sürecektir. Bu çalışmada, işsizlik histerisi doğrusal olmayan serilerde yapısal değişimlerin de etkisini modele katan Güriş (2019) tarafından literatüre kazandırılan Fourier Kruse birim kök testiyle incelenecektir. Bu amaçla, 1988-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak işsizlik histerisinin geçerli olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada kadın işsizliğinde histeri etkisinin olduğu belirlenmiştir. Erkek işsizliği ve toplam işsizlikte, yığılımlı modelde histeri etkisinin olmadığı saptanmıştır. Bu sonuçlara göre, meydana gelen şoklardan kadın işsizliğinin daha fazla etkilendiği; erkek işsizliğinin ise şoktan önceki durumlarına kolayca geri döndüğü bilgisi elde edilmiştir.
Unemployment is one of the macroeconomic issues that all economies must address. The increase in production costs and technological developments will lead to the birth of new business arms, while many workplaces are also seen to change their shape along with the machinery. In this study, the unemployment hystery in Turkey will be examined separately, both in the total and in the context of women and men unemployment. The concept of unemployment hystery can be explained in the way that unemployment series tend to turn to the average in any shock case. If the serial unit does not have a root, i.e. it shows a stable feature, it will be indicated that it does not have a hysteric effect and that in any shock the shock effect is temporary. If it is determined that the series has a unit root, i.e. it is not stable, it will not return to the series average after a shock and the shock effect will last long. In this study, the unemployment hystery will be studied by the Fourier Kruse unit root test, which was awarded to literature by String (2019) which also modeled the effect of structural changes in non-linear series. For this purpose, an annual data from the period 1988-2018 has been used to investigate whether unemployment hysterics are valid. The study found that the hysteric effect on women’s unemployment was determined. Men’s unemployment and total unemployment have not been found to have a hysteric effect in the accumulated model. These findings show that the shocks that occurred were more affected by women’s unemployment, and that the male unemployment was easily returned to their pre-shock situations.
Unemployment is one of the macroeconomic problems that all economies should emphasize. While the increase in production costs and technological developments cause new business lines to emerge, it is seen that many business lines change shape with mechanization. In this study, unemployment hysteria in Turkey, both in total and will be examined in the context of separate male and female unemployment. The concept of unemployment hysteresis can be explained by the fact that unemployment series do not tend to return to average in any shock. If the serial does not have a unit root, that is, it is stationary, it will be stated that it does not have a hysteria effect and the effect of the shock is temporary in case of any shock. If it is determined that the series has a unit root, that is, it is not stationary, the series will not return to the mean after a shock and the effect of the shock will take a long time. In this study, unemployment hysteresis will be analyzed with the Fourier Kruse unit root test introduced to the literature by Güriş (2019), which adds the effect of structural changes to nonlinear series. For this purpose, it was investigated whether unemployment hysteria is valid by using the annual data of 1988-2018 periods. In the study, it was determined that there was a hysteria effect on female unemployment. In male unemployment and total unemployment, it was determined that there was no hysteria effect in the model with intercept. According to these results, female unemployment is more affected by the shocks that occur; male unemployment, on the other hand, has been found to return to their pre-shock state more easily.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
Makale Detay 
Benzer Makaleler
PDF Görüntüle
Dergi Bilgisi
Eseri Dinleyin
Alıntı Yap
Bu Sayfayı Yazdırın
Paylaş
Mendeley
