Özet:

The main purpose of this study is to examine the macroeconomic and financial structure of the Balkan countries, including the COVID-19 process (2020-2022), which is a periodic crisis, and the monetary policies followed by the economies in question, primarily in theoretical terms. For this purpose, macroeconomic and financial performances of the central banks of the relevant countries are evaluated with their monthly data on monetary policies during the pandemic period. Following the theoretical dimension, a quantitative research method is used and panel data analysis is applied with the Arellano and Bond/Blundell and Bover two-stage system generalized moments estimator on ten selected Balkan countries with quarterly data from 2020Q1 to 2022Q1. In the study, as a result of the theoretical analysis of 12 Balkan countries, monetary policy instruments such as open market operations, rediscount rate, required reserve ratio, liquidity rate, policy interest rate are examined and it is concluded that COVID-19 is not only a health crisis, but also affects all areas, especially economic and social areas. It has been concluded that it directly affects socioeconomic relations. Within the scope of panel data analysis, the impact of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve theory on inflation, unemployment and the reference policy interest rate for the quarterly periods 2020Q1-2022Q1 for 10 Balkan countries excluding Montenegro and Kosovo is investigated. In the model established with the one-period lagged value of inflation within the framework of the Arellano Bond Test, since low interest rates are observed as an effect of the pandemic period, it is observed that a one-unit increase in interest rates increased inflation rates by 0.75, while a one-unit increase in the unemployment rate decreased the inflation rate by 0.20, findings that are in line with the Philips theory.

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