Abstract:

: Climate change is one of the most pressing global issues of the twenty-first century. This phenomenon has an increasingly severe impact on water resources and crop production. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production, and agricultural sustainability in an arid environment in Iran. To this end, the study constructs a new integrated climate-hydrological-economic model to assess the impact of future climate change on water resources and crop production. Furthermore, the agricultural sustainability is evaluated using the multicriteria decision making (MCDM) technique in the context of climate change. The findings regarding the prediction of climate variables show that the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by about 5.88% and 6.05%, respectively, while precipitation would decrease by approximately 30.68%. The results of the research reveal that water availability will decrease by about 13.79–15.45% under different climate scenarios. Additionally, the findings show that in the majority of cases crop production will reduce in response to climate scenarios so that rainfed wheat will experience the greatest decline (approximately 59.95%). The results of the MCDM model show that climate change can have adverse effects on economic and environmental aspects and, consequently, on the sustainability of the agricultural system of the study area. Our findings can inform policymakers on effective strategies for mitigating the consequences of climate change on water resources and agricultural production in dry regions.

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