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Tasarruf ve yatırım, ekonominin temel konularından biri olan ekonomik büyüme ile yakından ilişkilidir. Büyüme hızı, yatırımların miktarına ve bu yatırımların verimliliğindeki artışa bağlıdır. Yatırımlar ise tasarruf şeklinde elde edilen fonları gerektirmektedir. Bu noktada ortaya çıkan sorun yatırımların ne kadarının ulusal tasarruflarla finanse edildiğidir. Öte yandan sermayenin herhangi bir kısıtlama olmaksızın ülkeye girip çıkabilmesi, sermaye hareketlerinin serbest olduğunu gösterir. Bu da yurtiçi tasarrufların yetersiz kaldığı durumda yabancı tasarruflardan yararlanma imkânı tanımaktadır. Dolayısıyla hem yerli hem de yabancı tasarruflar, sermaye birikimi ve ekonomik kalkınma için kritik öneme sahiptir. Feldstein-Horioka (1980), tasarruf ve yatırım arasındaki korelasyon ne kadar güçlüyse, uluslararası sermayenin o kadar az hareketli olacağını varsaymaktadır. İşte teorik beklentilere ters olan bu durum iktisatta bir bulmaca olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacası Türkiye ekonomisi için 1983-2019 dönemi ele alınarak araştırılmıştır. Geleneksel birim kök testleri ve Fourier ADF testi ile yapılan durağanlık incelemesinin ardından uygulanan Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme testi sonuçları, yatırım ve tasarruf arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Katsayı tahmini ise ilgili dönemde Türkiye’de tasarrufların yurtiçi yatırımların %53’ünü karşıladığını göstermiştir. Sonuç olarak ilgili dönemde Türkiye’de Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi geçerlidir.
Savings and investments are closely related to economic growth, which is one of the core issues of the economy. The growth rate depends on the amount of investments and the increase in the efficiency of these investments. Investments require funds in the form of savings. The problem at this point is how much investments are funded by national savings. On the other hand, the fact that capital can enter and exit the country without any restrictions indicates that capital movements are free. This also recognizes the possibility of taking advantage of foreign savings in the event that domestic savings remain insufficient. Therefore, both domestic and foreign savings are critical for capital accumulation and economic development. Feldstein-Horioka (1980), assumes that the stronger the correlation between savings and investments, the less international capital will be moving. This, which is contrary to theoretical expectations, is called a puzzle in the economy. In this study, the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle was investigated by addressing the period 1983-2019 for the Turkish economy. Following the traditional unit root tests and the stagnation examination with the Fourier ADF test, the Fourier Shin integration test results have shown that there is a long-term relationship between investment and savings. The estimates show that the savings in Turkey in the relevant period accounted for 53% of domestic investments. The Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis in Turkey.
Saving and investment are closely related to economic growth, which is one of the fundamental issues of the economy. The growth rate depends on the amount of investments and the increase in the efficiency of these investments. Investments require funds obtained in the form of savings. The problem at this point is how much of the investments are financed by domestic savings. On the other hand, the fact that capital can enter and leave the country without any restrictions indicates that capital movements are free. This provides the opportunity to benefit from foreign savings in cases where domestic savings are insufficient. Therefore, both domestic and foreign savings are critical for capital accumulation and economic development. Feldstein-Horioka (1980) assumes that the stronger the correlation between saving and investment, the less mobile international capital will be. This situation, which is contrary to theoretical expectations, is described as a puzzle in economics. In this study, Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle was investigated by considering the 1983-2019 period for Turkey's economy. The results of the Fourier Shin cointegration test, which was applied after the stationarity examination performed with the traditional unit root tests and the Fourier ADF test, proved that there is a long-term relationship between investments and savings. The estimated coefficients in the corresponding period of domestic savings in Turkey showed that the 53% of investments. As a result, Feldstein Horioka Hypothesis is valid in Turkey in the relevant period.
Field : Eğitim Bilimleri; Fen Bilimleri ve Matematik; Filoloji; Güzel Sanatlar; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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