Abstract:

Within the spheres of influence of the concept of globalization, especially the economic dimension has reached an eye-catching point by means of significant development and growth in world trade in the last century. The ruthless competition caused by globalization creates macroeconomic instability and causes cyclical fluctuations. External shocks that occur in other countries due to the international economic relations of a country are among the sources of cyclical fluctuations. In the current literature on the causes and sources of fluctuations, the imbalances created by external shocks are generally considered from two aspects, namely supply and demand.In this study, the short-and long-term macroeconomic effects of exogenous supply and demand shocks originating from the countries where Turkey has an intense trade relationship were investigated by considering business cycle and synchronization, and their possible effects on Turkey's economic growth was revealed. Accordingly, the data of the relevant variables of Turkey, USA, Germany, England, Russia, China, Italy, United Arab Emirates, and Iraq for the period 1989-2019 were analyzed by time series, ARDL model, and Variance Decomposition Method. The findings obtained differ for each country and period. Accordingly, all models in the self-Turkey’s per capita due to changes occurring in the majority of GDP and capital, labor and highlights the impact of oil prices is more variable.

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