Özet:

The jumping plant-louse Triozoida limbata is monophagous on guava ( Psidium guajava), inducing leaf galls. Guava is planted today in warmer regions around the world but T. limbata is restricted to Central and South America. Recently, the latter has become a key pest in commercial plantations in Brazil (Pernambuco and São Paulo). Modeling of potential distributions is a good tool for developing control strategies of insect pests. Based on distributional data from the Americas, we created models for the psyllids for the present and future using different scenarios of climate change. The OpenModeller eco-niche modeling program was used with the Environmental Distance and Envelope Score algorithms. The potential distribution of T. limbata covers Central America, tropical and subtropical South America, sub-Saharan Africa except for the Kalahari and Cape regions, the southwest of the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, and the north of Australia. In India, the largest guava producer of the world, the conditions for T. limbata are most favorable in the west and south. The effects of global climate change will be most felt in Brazil, where the decrease of suitable areas for T. limbata will concentrate the pest in the east and northeast and thus put more pressure on guava, increasing the potential for psyllid-induced damage.

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