Özet:

When Turkey’s foreign trade is analyzed, most of the total import consist of intermediate goods and capital goods. The realization of manufacturing production through the importation of intermediate and capital goods causes the added value to be obtained to be transferred abroad and makes the manufacturing industry dependent on imports. This situation also weakens the international competitiveness of firms producing intermediate goods and causes a macroeconomic foreign trade deficit, thus causing a current account deficit. In this study, in Turkey, the relationship between industrial production and intermediate goods imports are examined by the ARDL bound test using monthly data for the period 2007-2018. According to the analysis results, it has been determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables of manufacturing industry production and imports of intermediate goods for the study period. In the study in which the long and short term coefficients are estimated, the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test is applied. A causality relationship was found between variables in the test, in which positive and negative shocks were taken into account.

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