Özet:

Background: Ageing and shrinking of the European population influence the shrinking of central places and the hinterland of cities in a spatial structure. Migration also influences the shrinking or growing of spatial units. Various factors influence migration and, thus, spatial units' demographic, social and economic stability. The age structure of citizens in a spatial unit may change not only due to population ageing but also because these factors influence the migration flows of different cohorts differently, which has not been studied so far. Objectives: We used data on internal migration between Slovenian municipalities in 2018 and 2019 to develop a cohort-based spatial interaction model to estimate future inter-municipal migration. Approach: In a spatial interaction model, we analyzed differences in the attractiveness and stickiness of municipalities for different cohorts, focusing on those over 65 who may wish to prolong their working status. We also tried to answer the question of how to mitigate shrinkage processes in spatial units by investigating the potential to contribute to the social value of communities. Results: The study's results show that the 65+ cohorts do not have the same preferences regarding the attractiveness and stickiness factors as younger migrants. Conclusions: The results of our study could contribute to better decisions at the national, regional, and/or local level when designing strategies for regional, urban, and/or rural development, exploring the best solutions for long-term care, and investing in appropriate networks, or considering the revitalization of rural municipalities.

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