Abstract:

Economy of Ardahan province on a large scale depends on stock farming since a significant part of the population is employed in the livestock sector. For this reason, milk and dairy products have an important place in Ardahan's economy. The increasing demand for milk in Turkey and in the World brings the issue of sustainability of milk supply. Therefore, it is important to estimate the proceeding course of milk production to adapt increasing milk demand and to determine effective policies. In the study, Ardahan province milk production data was obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) for the period of 1995-2019 in order to estimate the milk production. Box-Jenkin’s methodology was used to predict milk production of Ardahan province for the years of 2020-2025. A suitable ARIMA (0,0,1) model was proposed to forecast estimate milk production of Ardahan province. According to this model, the milk production in Ardahan province was estimated as 414, 439 and 557 thousand tons in 2020, 2021 2025, respectively.

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