Bu çalışmada, Okun Yasasının Türkiye ekonomisinde geçerliliği 1923-1971, 1972-2019 ve 1923-2019 dönemleri için analiz edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi ile incelenmiş ve serilerin I(1) oldukları belirlenmiştir. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkileri de Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiş ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu bulunmuştur. Regresyon katsayıları DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle tahmin edilmiş ve Okun Yasasının Türkiye ekonomisinde 1923-1971 döneminde güçlü, 1923-2019 döneminde zayıf formda geçerli olduğu, 1972-2019 döneminde ise İstihdam Yaratmayan Ekonomik Büyüme Teorisinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre 1923-1971 döneminde %5,3’ün üzerindeki her %1 puanlık ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik oranını %0.33 puan, 1923-2019 döneminde ise %4,9’un üzerinde gerçekleşen her %1 puanlık ekonomik büyüme işsizlik oranını %0.03 birim azaltmıştır. 1972-2019 döneminde ise %4,4’ün üzerindeki her %1 puanlık ekonomik büyüme, işsizliği %0.63 puan artırmıştır. Yapılan VECM nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre Türkiye ekonomisinde işsizlik oranı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında kısa dönemde herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilemezken, uzun dönemli nedensellik ilişkileri belirlenmiştir.
In this study, the validity of Okun Law in the Turkish economy was analyzed for the periods 1923-1971, 1972-2019 and 1923-2019. The series is based on Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) Multi-structually broken units were studied by root test and the series were determined as I(1) . The matching relationships between the series have also been studied by the Maki (2012) multi-structually broken matching test and found that there is a matching relationship between the series. Regression rates were predicted by the methods of DOLS, FMOLS and CCR, and the Okun Law was found to be strong in the Turkish economy in the period 1923-1971, in the period 1923-2019 in weak form, and in the period 1972-2019 theory of economic growth that does not create employment was valid. According to this, in the period of 1923-1971 economic growth of 1.1% above 5.3% reduced the rate of unemployment by 0.33%, and in the period of 1923-2019 economic growth of 1.1% above 4.9% reduced the rate of unemployment by 0.03%. In the period 1972-2019, economic growth of 1.1% above 4.4% increased unemployment by 0.63%. According to the results of the VECM causality test; in the Turkish economy, unemployment rate and economic growth cannot be identified in the short term, while long-term causality relationships have been determined.
In this study, the validity of Okun Law in the economy of Turkey is analyzed for 1923-1971, 1972-2019 and 1923-2019 periods. Stationarity of the series is examined by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) unit root test with multiple structural break and it is determined that the series are I(1). Cointegration relationships between the series are examined by Maki (2012) cointegration test with multiple structural breaks and it is found that there is a cointegration relationship between the series. Regression coefficients are estimated by the methods of DOLS, FMOLS and CCR and it is determined that Okun Law is strongly valid in 1923-1971 period in Turkey's economy, weakly valid in the period of 1923-2019 while Jobless Growth Theory is valid for 1972-2019 period. According to these results, every 1% unit of economic growth above 5.3% in the period of 1923-1971 decreased the unemployment rate by 0.33% units and every 1% unit of economic growth above 4.9% in the period of 1923-2019 reduced the unemployment rate by 0.03% units. In the period of 1972-2019, every 1% unit of economic growth above 4.4% increased unemployment rate by 0.63%. According to VECM causality test results; while there aren't any causal relationship between economic growth and unemployment in the short-term, there are long-term causal relationship.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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