Abstract:

The study, which examined the relationship between country credit ratings and key macroeconomic variables, examined the country credit ratings of 32 countries and 5 indicative variables in the 2008-2017 period, ranked by Standard and Poors (S&P). According to the results, as the income per person rises, the likelihood of credit ratings to be at the BB+ and below levels decreases, while the likelihood of credit ratings to be at the BBB and above levels that can be invested increases. The increase in income per person in countries of the highest middle income group reduces the possibility of passing to the highest BBB rating, while increases the possibility of rise to the highest BBB level. In terms of inflation and interest, this is the opposite. As prices rise at the overall level and the interest rate, the possibility of a country in the top middle income group to rise to the investmentable level decreases, and the possibility of staying at the speculative level increases. The increase in prices at the general level significantly increases the possibility that the credit rating of the countries concerned is at BB-level, while the possibility that the investment is at a possible level, such as BBB, is significantly reduced. On the other hand, in the relevant period, there was no systematic relationship between the unemployment rate and the currency rate and the country’s credit ratings for countries in the top middle-income group.

Keywords: